Poll Shows Moran in Trouble

Jerry Moran supporters sent out odd emails this week touting the results of a SurveyUSA poll signfiying they had a 7 point lead, 40-33.

While Moran does have a small, barely-statistically-meaningful lead, the folks behind the Tiahrt campaign must be pleased with what the poll shows beyond the top number.

First of all, the top number itself is not good for Moran at all. Despite what they describe as a big money advantage and having run in several uncontested races for Congress, and twice being mentioned as a candidate for Governor, Jerry Moran is only at 40%. That's a nice number but let's not forget Moran started with a big fundraising advantage simply because he had more money from those uncontested races. Yet, Tiahrt remains basically just barely behind. Nothing has changed in the past few months in the overall number. A 7 point lead at this point means little -- just ask Sheila Frahm, who was up 25 points in May on Brownback in 1996.

Secondly, this is the devastating blow for Moran:

Moran's lead in the western part of the state -- previously 52 points -- is down to 35 points. While still huge, Moran's entire strategy seems based on a massive win in a district where his name ID is huge. While Tiahrt has a smaller 17 point lead in Wichita and Moran continues a 15 point lead in the KC area, if Moran continues to slide in the west as that region's conservative voters become aware -- and drift -- to Tiahrt -- Moran's lead appears extremely shaky.

It is our view that the very simple regional analysis of this race -- that Tiahrt would win Wichita, Moran the west, and then they battle it out in Topeka and KC -- is a tad short sighted. It certainly will play a factor, but voters are not robots -- there will be many voters in the west who will vote for Tiahrt, as they become familiar with him as ads go up. While there will be a similar effect for Moran in Wichita, the fact is he doesn't have nearly as much room to grow there as Tiahrt does in the West. Also, simply because the "Big First" is very spread out, trying to keep that vote locked in for Moran will be difficult once Tiahrt's ads are up and running. Make no mistake -- there will be many voters in the west who will favorably respond to Tiahrt and soon not care if Moran is their current Congressman or not.

Our point is that the big issue here is not region, but the 27% of people who are undecided. If they were going to vote by region, they would already know their choice. The fact that more than a quarter of the vote is completely undecided -- and that there was an 18 point swing in Moran's western vote -- shows that this is much more than a regional race and the race is very fluid.

In our view, it will come down to who simply has the best organization and turnout game and the best overall message. In an area like Johnson County, which is very easy to walk quickly, that will be extremely important. Moran will tout a money advantage but as we've covered here before, 99% of the voters do not care who has more money -- they will never know. And, Tiahrt's money is plenty to compete in a Kansas summer-time primary where the markets are small and people aren't watching TV.

In that end, it seems that the Tiahrt campaign is much more visible on the ground, is doing a better job of claiming the conservative label, and honestly seems much more engaged himself on the ground. The more people actually see the candidate, the better. Tiahrt's been working very hard to get himself to as many events as possible, big and small, and that is to his credit. It also seems that the Tea Party movement is much more aligned in Tiahrt's favor, which means there is much more energy in his camp when it comes to turnout. Moran's endorsements from friends on Captiol Hill and Mayors elected by 8% of the voters will not make up the gap, either.

Moran and Tiahrt could both very well win and both would make fine Senators. But, with Moran's early advantages, his being stuck at 40% -- and losing voters in your own district at a very quick rate -- is not a recipe for victory.