With Barack Obama's poll numbers dropping like a rock, leftist czars resigning, hundreds of new voters showing up at tea parties and town halls, and Dennis Moore voting like a lap dog rather than a blue dog -- while at the same time evading voters by cancelling town meetings in which 1000 people had RSVP'd, some in the 3rd Congressional District are wondering whether Dennis Moore might be vulnerable.
So far, three candidates are out public -- State Representative Patricia Lightner is the major candidate on the scene, along with Marine veteran Staff Sargeant Daniel Gilyeat of Extreme Home Makeover fame, and John Rysavy.
Several other names -- everyone from State Senators Karin Brownlee and Julia Lynn to State Representatives Kevin Yoder and Pat Colloton to City Councilman Terry Goodman to former State Senator and 2008 candidate Nick Jordan to private citizens Tom Scherer, Jason Mora, Macie Houston and Steve Reintjes, among others -- have been rumored to be at various stages of their decision making -- either in, out, or somewhere in between.
Count em all up and that's at least 13 people who are in the race or are thinking about running. The one thing that most of the major candidates -- outside of one -- have in common is that they are doing just that -- thinking about it. Not talking to voters, not appearing in parades, not going to tea parties or rallies, not even putting up a website.
The good news is, for those who actually want to win, is that one major candidate -- Patricia Lightner -- is running to win. Lightner, who first formed an exploratory effort but has clearly been taking taking decisive steps towards a formal announcement, has been literally been everywhere in the past couple of months, particularly the past few weeks -- doing guess what? Actually campaigning!
While the chattering class chattered, Patricia Lightner showed up at the Olathe Republican Picnic and won the straw poll by a wide margin. She later spoke at meetings of the Johnson County Young Republicans and Northeast Johnson County Republican Women.
While some speculated, Patricia Lightner took more steps by setting up a thorough website in mid-August, followed a few days later by the launch of an 8-minute introductory video, as well as pages on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. She's even taking specific questions as part of what she labels "Ask Patricia".
While others earned favorable praise by Steve Rose, Patricia Lightner lined up a series of "Meet & Greets" -- with three already occurring and three more scheduled at various locations throughout the the 3rd District. She also showed up at the Freedom Fest, talking to hundreds of potential voters angry at Dennis Moore. Lightner or her staff have also been present at town halls, tea parties, and other events and forums throughout the District.
While still more ponder the possibilities, Patricia Lightner is participating in the huge Old Settlers festival, including having a presence in the Saturday parade, placing herself in front of 200,000 voters.
While party insiders fret about the inner-party split, Patricia Lightner is talking to the other 99% of voters who could care less about party squabbles and simply want to get behind a candidate who will actually listen to them and talk about her principles with confidence and conviction.
While prognosticators crunch the numbers and hold up past results showing large Moore victories, Patricia Lightner is aggressively building a grassroots strategy aimed at demonstrating, as she put in her video, how "you win seats that experts say are safe". She has made it clear she's not afraid to have a door-to-door strategy not built on TV ads and "glossy mailers" but real person-to-person contact.
Simply put, while others sit on the sidelines staring at their playbooks, Patricia Lightner --sensing that Dennis Moore (thinking he has a big lead) is playing a prevent defense -- is slowly but surely again and again marching down the field, earning first downs, scoring points, setting up what could very well be an upset victory come next November.
While others think about it, the decisive Patricia Lightner is running to win.
Lightner clearly recognizes that 2010 is a different election cycle with thousands of new participants who previously didn't pay attention to politics but are now motivated to action. These new activists are not party insiders or candidate kingmakers, but real people who care about their country and are looking for a candidate to bust through the BS and talk about what matters. Patricia Lightner is talking to them.
Lightner clearly recognizes that the only way to win an election in a year like 2010, particularly in a district with a 12-year Democratic incumbent, is to campaign early and often. In many ways, it's almost too late for other candidates to enter -- most Congressional campaigns, even ones in safe Republican districts, have been out for months. Elections are not won by endless talk behind the scenes and internal memos -- elections are won by aggressively campaigning on conservative principles. Patricia Lightner is being aggressive in talking about those principles.
Lightner clearly recognizes that she is not afraid of a primary and that avoiding one is not the be-all and end-all of winning elections -- just ask Nick Jordan -- and that it is most important to, as our neighbors to the east put it, "show me" what she's all about. In short, she is making her case and if a primary comes, so be it -- for, in many ways, a primary can be healthy. A primary election forces a candidate to prove him or herself, to talk to voters, to actually campaign and participate in events -- and not only that, earn free media, and in a victory, huge positive headlines resulting from such a win. Just ask Lynn Jenkins, who had a hard fought narrow-margin race with Jim Ryun. She, at the end of the day, won one of what was just a couple Republican victories in 2008 - the same election where the primary-less Nick Jordan, just to the east, earned south of 40%. Jenkins, even if you disagree with her on a couple social issues, showed courage. Patricia Lightner is showing she has courage.
Patricia Lightner is simply putting aside the traditional political insider playbook and instead replacing it with one designed for victory. She's introducing herself, getting practice on the stump, talking about her record and background, promoting her principles, and doing all the new-media communication necessary to win. Should she continue to campaign in this manner, the endorsements, money, and most importantly, victory, will follow.
For people who are looking for a candidate who will read the tea leaves and measure the political winds first, their are about 10 people to choose from.
For those voters looking for a candidate who is committed to the grassroots, who will work hard, who will talk to every voter who will listen, who will ignore the party squabbles and just RUN TO WIN -- it is increasingly evident that their candidate is already in the race.
And that candidate is Patricia Lightner.